As you are well aware, the great bringer of nominees that is the Iowa Caucus was today. I’m not a huge fan of the caucus, I think it’s a little silly that a state as homogenous as Iowa has the first say about nominees but I digress because unfortunately the world doesn’t operate around what I find sensible.
Paul came in third with Santorum and Romney more or less tied, which I found surprising. I know Santorum has been campaigning like mad all over Iowa but I’m a little surprised that it worked. I don’t think his sudden surge in popularity has all that much to do with his campaigning though- he’s just a fortunate victim of circumstance. He’s been so behind recently that people have been ignoring him and not digging for dirt (not that you really have to, he says crazy offensive shit fairly regularly). It isn’t that he is a good candidate, it’s that GOP voters haven’t yet taken the time to pinpoint what is so bad about him like they have with the others. Plus, evangelicals don’t like Romney the mormon, so Santorum was able to capitalize on that handicap. (why Iowa of all the states, why IOWA ugh) Santorum is really pushing that he is a “consistent conservative” as opposed to Romney’s less than stellar record…I don’t think that Iowa will give him that much momentum nationally since he polls pretty poorly in most of the country but if by some ungodly miracle he really picks up the pace he has the potential to be a serious pain in Romney’s side (but not one in Obama’s). Everyone else realizes or is in the process of realizing that he isn’t a general election candidate. He panders too much to an extreme audience and has said some things that have made him pretty much unelectable. (Diversity is bad, I don’t want to help black people, etc). I still choose Romney as the winner of the nomination. Sure, he’s bland and reminiscent of the guy who everyone friend zoned in high school, but come on GOP. He’s a mostly benevolent WASPy Mormon who just wants to be your nominee. Let him take you to the dance, it’s your best chance at winning Prom King against Mr. BHO. Fire will only take you so far, running a pleasant, uneventful campaign in this case has the potential to take you much further.
Paul is not going to be the nominee. He’s too old and too thinly spread. Some Democrats like him, some Republicans like him, some Libertarians and Independents like him, but not enough people in any one party like him enough to make him the nominee. Retire, Paul. You’ve had your turn.
Perry, Gingrich, and Bachmann were in the losers bracket so to speak, and Perry is now going to go home with his tail between his legs and “reassess his campaign” ie prepare to drop out. He has a nice gig as governor and has invested a lot of money in his campaign to lose so badly in Iowa. If he has any sense, he’ll cut his losses.
Bachmann is not in the race and at this point, she better know it.
Gingrich is the most not-Romney candidate out there but it didn’t do him much good today. People just don’t like Newt Gingrich. He polls fairly well in some southern states, South Carolina among them which is coming up, but he won’t end up with the nomination and he knows that. He just isn’t a general election candidate, but he’s along for the ride. I’ll admit, I sort of like Newt. He’s a terrible human being but the man is as sassy as they come, he keeps things interesting. If he drops out I’ll be sad to see him go.
Huntsman got something like 800 votes and wasn’t even part of the caucus. It’s okay baby, I still like you. You go Jon.