For better or for worse, here’s how I’m feeling about the Republican primary field at the moment. As we get closer to the primary, I’ll post updates to this. Feel free to send me any questions or comments you have afterwards.
Candidates that matter:
Michele Bachmann - She’s lost a lot of her thunder, but she’s still a top tier candidate for now. She lost her campaign manager recently, as well as the replacement being put into a consulting position so I suspect there’s a lot of turmoil going on in her camp right now. A big part of her problem is that she’s moved further and further right this season in an attempt to win the primary, but it’s isolating way too many people for it to ever be possible for her to win the general election at this point. Her straw poll numbers are down, and she’s not really a Tea Party darling anymore. Rick Perry poses the biggest threat to her, since he’s essentially her but more well spoken and male. I really doubt she’ll win the primary if trends continue.
Rick Perry - First off: Conservative governor of Texas- been there, done that, no thanks not again. He’s got a lot of evangelical Christian support, and the Southern votes that don’t go to Cain (ugh ugh ugh) will probably go to this good ol’ boy. When he entered the race, he shot up in the rankings and he’s pretty highly favored to win the primary, just under Romney if the latest numbers aren’t lying to me. He’s incredibly conservative, and frankly anyone that brags about how many people they’ve put to death isn’t anyone I want to have much power. He’s charismatic which gives him an edge, and he’s definitely an top tier candidate. I wouldn’t be surprised if he won the primary when it all comes down to it.
Herman Cain - Let’s talk about THIS GUY. He started out as a joke, really. As a person living in Atlanta, he’s always been a bit of a joke that comes up in the news every once in a while and then goes away again so imagine my surprise when he actually started winning polls. He’s right on the cusp of becoming a front runner and if his numbers keep up, he’ll kick Bachmann out of her spot and step up within the next few weeks or months. I understand his rise to popularity, he offers solutions rather than just platitudes (9-9-9), he’s running a pretty friendly campaign, and he’s very much an every man. He’s a little further removed from Washington than the rest of the candidates, and he has that business background to fall back on when his credibility is questioned. His big pit fall may be foreign policy, but he isn’t a stupid man and after he stumbled at that debate when asked about Right of Return I suspect he’s done his homework. He’ll probably win in Georgia and Florida, but I do think his race will either make or break his success in the South at the end of the day which may determine his national success. I don’t think he would turn out to be social issues president, and we’re beginning to see signs of that in his debate performance.
Newt Gingrich - He’s been in politics for too long. Honestly, he’s too smart to be in the race and I don’t think he really wants to be. He won’t win, and that’s about all there is to it.
Jon Huntsman - Jon Huntsman is my favorite of the GOP candidates. He’s very charismatic, and most importantly he has far and away the most experience of any of the candidates. He’s been ambassador to China under Obama as well as the Governor of Utah, and he performs well in debates. He’s probably the most liberal of the bunch next to Ron Paul, and is one of the 2 candidates I think has any shot of winning the general election. He’s trying to get away from the anti-science label that the GOP has been carrying around lately, and he’s much less malicious about his policy stance than most of his peers. (when I say malicious I mostly mean less hostile to everyone that isn’t like him and doesn’t share his doctrine). He seems very reasonable, and he doesn’t have that annoying tendency to come up with his own facts. He’s a solid candidate and I don’t think he’ll be going anywhere anytime soon. Unfortunately, I think the fact that he’s Mormon will hurt him in the polls, particularly in the South and I’m not sure he’s conservative enough to win the primary.
Mitt Romney - Mitt is an interesting guy. He’s the clear favorite to win the primary, he’s led nearly every poll thus far. He’s very well educated, a Harvard man, and he fairs well in the debates. Despite his liberal history he’s a pretty firm conservative. There of course has been a lot of controversy over his Romneycare plan from his days as Gov. of Massachusetts, and that follows suit with what I’ve observed from his whole campaign: People question his personal beliefs (Mormon) and his past history, but no one questions his economic decisions. He wavers a little on social issues but he has a strong economic policy background in his back pocket that is going to continue to come in handy. Even though he wavers, he’s a strong candidate and religious and conservative enough to satiate the primary voters. I suspect he’ll win the primary, and I don’t think it’s out of the question for him to win the general election. He’s not as malicious as Bachmann or Perry, so it might as well be him for the GOP candidate.
Ron Paul - There really isn’t much to say about Ron Paul. He’s been in the game forever as a hardcore Libertarian. He’s too socially liberal (let’s be honest, despite his debate performance he isn’t going to legislate jack shit that restricts anyone’s rights) to suit the GOP, and too economically deregulatory to suit the Democrats so he stands virtually no chance of winning. I think he’s in it just for the hell of it at this point. I enjoy listening to him speak, but it’s a futile race for him.
Candidates that are technically in the race but don’t matter: Gary Johnson, Fred Karger, Andy Martin, Jimmy McMillan, Tom Miller, Buddy Roemer, Rick Santorum, Vern Wuensche